UK-headquartered banking group Standard Chartered and Edinburgh-based investment manager abrdn have just published their 2025 market outlook outlining investment opportunities.
Bạn đang xem: Standard Chartered, abrdn Positive On US Equities In 2025
Despite uncertainties over policy shifts, abrdn is positive on US and
developed markets equities in 2025, selective emerging markets,
while real estate is upgraded for the third quarter in a row.
The firm said it has become more positive on developed market
equities, with strong US earnings growth, and a likely broadening
in tech and artificial intelligence winners, providing a
basis for stock market performance. However, elevated US equity
valuations bring risks, with the valuation gap between US and
European stocks now at a record high. This keeps positioning
sizing still relatively small.
Overall, abrdn is positive on corporate risk and the
dollar, positive on real estate, and neutral on most fixed income
markets, with divergence a key theme. The firm thinks that
investors are better off taking diversified risk in financial
markets, rather than sitting on cash.
A stronger dollar and global trade uncertainty are likely to be
headwinds to emerging market debt, which has been downgraded. But
abrdn stresses that there can be emerging market winners in the
changing patterns of globalization, with select opportunities
especially among higher yielding countries in Latin America.
There are several risks to this outlook, including from US trade,
immigration, and fiscal policy; Chinese growth and the stimulus
response; and various political and geopolitical flashpoints.
Further policy easing is likely in China so, despite
headwinds, the firm is modestly positive on emerging market
equities. In fact, some of the most vulnerable countries – such
as Mexico and Vietnam – are also best placed to gain from
reshoring if the US does pursue rapid decoupling from China, the
firm said.
“Moving into 2025, there is significant uncertainty about the
precise contours of the coming policy shifts under US
president-elect Donald Trump,” Peter Branner, chief investment
officer at abrdn, said. “There is a substantial risk that
the Trump administration proves much more disruptive than we are
expecting, both to the upside and downside in terms of economic
and market outcomes. And there are scenarios in which Trump’s
policy agenda proves even more supportive for growth and market
sentiment,” he added.
Branner expects strong US GDP growth in 2025 driven by a cooling
but still solid labor market and strong corporate profitability,
and slightly stronger growth in 2026 boosted by tax cuts and
deregulation.
Against this backdrop, he is positive on developed market
equities as the outlook for US earnings growth remains strong,
and he continues to upgrade his positive position on property as
the market turns up from the bottom of the cycle. He is modestly
positive on emerging markets in anticipation of more China
stimulus and has identified opportunities in select emerging
markets that can benefit from shifting patterns of globalization.
Small caps
Forthcoming shifts in US policy bring uncertainty, but are likely
to disproportionately benefit US firms, and small caps in
particular, abrdn continued. The deregulation agenda pursued by
the Trump administration is likely to see the US Federal Trade
Commission make merger and acquisition activity easier, while
relaxing bank capital regulations and granting more energy
exploration permits. Corporate tax cuts will tend to benefit
smaller companies most, while conversely tariffs will
disproportionately hit internationally exposed firms.
Standard
Chartered”s chief investment office (CIO) also believes that
Trump’s win has boosted US business confidence on expectations of
tax cuts and deregulation, and increased protectionism from
tariffs. The firm is overweight in equities and gold and thinks
that the US is likely to be in the driver’s seat, outperforming
other major markets, as business and consumer confidence is
boosted following Trump’s election. Trump’s contentious policy
agenda and China’s growth outlook are key risks.
Standard Chartered believes that Europe, China, Mexico and Canada
face increased trade uncertainty as Trump imposes higher import
tariffs as a starting point of negotiations to bring down US
bilateral trade deficits. China, facing deflationary pressures,
is likely to try and offset US import curbs with higher exports
to non-US markets and increased stimulus to boost domestic
demand. The euro area faces a greater challenge, given
self-imposed constraints to expanding fiscal policy. Given this,
Standard Chartered expects the European Central Bank to cut rates
to 2 per cent by end-2025 to support growth as inflation
cools.
“While it is important to keep abreast with global events and
their impact on markets, it is even more important to focus on an
investment plan. Be disciplined, stay invested and don’t try to
time the market too much. Ensuring a good diversification in your
portfolio, maintaining a foundation portfolio and regularly
adding to it when opportunities arise, would help achieve your
long-term financial and life goals,” Steve Brice, global chief
investment officer at Standard Chartered said.
Other wealth managers, such as Northern
Trust Asset Management, UBS
Global Wealth Management, Pictet Asset
Management and Goldman
Sachs Asset Management, also favor US equities in 2025. See
more commentary here
and
here.
Nguồn: https://staredecisis.quest
Danh mục: News
